Posts tagged probability
The Nirvana Fallacy and Why Probability Beats Certainty

The principle of the Nirvana Fallacy holds that if perfection can’t be attained, why bother trying?

It’s easy to associate this with business cultures that are intolerant of failure or averse to new ideas. But certainty is also demanded from more forgiving organizational cultures. On the face of it, this expectation of certainty seems reasonable. If you are to invest a great deal of time and effort into a particular venture, shouldn’t you be very certain, or at least very close to it?

 

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